Canada is going to invite enormous number of Permanent Residents in 2022.

Canada is going to invite enormous number of Permanent Residents in 2022.

The factors that may affect the Express Entry Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) scores

Canada has resumed all-program Express Entry draws as of 6th July, 2022. Since then, the number of Invitations to Apply (ITAs) issued in each draw has grown up by 250 each week, causing the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score requirements to go down. It is been said, the score cutoffs are still quite high. The most recent Express Entry draw required candidates to have at least a score of 533. In order to get a score this high, the candidate would need to be young, highly educated with relevant employment experience, and perhaps even bilingual in order to get an Invitation to Apply.

Having to labour shortage, Canada is getting ready to invite a record number of migrants to apply for permanent residency (PR) in 2022 alone. Canada is expecting to welcome about 55,900 Express Entry candidates, and then in 2024, the Express Entry target is going up to 111,500. And hence, it is becoming extremely crucial to consider the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score as more are more candidates are applying for it.

It generally follows that the more Express Entry candidates will get invitation, the lower the CRS cutoff will be. However, there are currently a large number of Express Entry candidates in the pool with scores above 501, partially due to repressed demand.

IRCC had paused draws for Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP) draws since December 2020, and the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) had been paused in September 2021. During this time, the number of candidates scoring more than 501 in the pool grew as there were no draws inviting them to apply. Express Entry profiles are valid for up to 12 months in the pool.

For that reason, the number of high-scoring candidates in the pool has rise as compared to pre-pandemic. On March 3, 2020, the last draw before COVID-19 was declared a pandemic; there were some 21,900 Express Entry candidates in the pool with scores between 450 and 600. During the August 3, 2022 draw, there were 66,813 Express Entry candidates in the same range.

The number of Express Entry candidates with scores between 501 and 600 is about 8,975, according to the most recent figures available on the government website. Although this figure represents fewer candidates in this range compared to the July 20 Express Entry draw, it is still more than observed on July 6. This suggests more high-scoring candidates are entering the pool, but not fast enough to prevent the CRS cutoff from dropping.

The number of Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) candidates in the pool is another factor that could affect how low the CRS score will drop. This figure is determined by the provinces, as these governments are the ones that issue nominations. It then depends on how fast the Express Entry candidate can respond to an invitation to apply for a nomination (if they want to) and how much time it takes the province to process the nomination.

In the most recent three draws, the increase of 250 ITAs per draw has been enough to offset the intake of new Express Entry candidates as well as PNP candidates. As a result, the CRS score has continued to go down. If Canada continues to increase the number of ITAs by 250 every two weeks, it will take 30 weeks for draw sizes to match the 5,000 we saw in December 2020. That would be March 8, 2023.